Israel Heads to Ballots

Voters in Israel are casting ballots on Tuesday in a legislative election that has not occurred since the October 2023 Hamas-led attacks.

The conflict that began with the attacks on October 7, 2023, triggered a war in the Gaza Strip and reshaped the political arena. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who has led the country for more than 15 of the last 17 years, is seeking to maintain his position. He faces corruption charges filed in 2019 and an International Criminal Court arrest warrant for war crimes.

Two major coalitions are competing for control of the 120-seat Knesset. Netanyahu's bloc includes his Likud party, along with far-right and ultra-Orthodox groups. United Torah Judaism and Shas form the religious core of this alliance. Ministers Itamar Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich lead the Otzma Yehudi and Religious Zionism-Zehut parties, respectively. The opposition bloc unites four Jewish-led movements. Gadi Eisenkot heads the Yashar party, while Yair Golan leads the Democrats. Avigdor Lieberman directs Yisrael Beiteinu, and Naftali Bennett leads the Together alliance, which now includes opposition leader Yair Lapid.

A party must secure at least 3.25 percent of the vote to enter parliament. The final polls before a publication ban took effect on Friday indicated that neither side would reach the 61 seats required for a majority. A survey by public broadcaster KAN projected 52 seats for the opposition and 50 for Netanyahu's camp. The remaining seats are expected to go to unaffiliated parties, including the Ra'am and Joint List, which are Arab-majority. Both major blocs have ruled out partnering with these Arab-led parties for now.

Domestic issues weigh heavily on the electorate. Many voters seek accountability for security failures preceding the 2023 attacks and object to the military exemption granted to the ultra-Orthodox community. Critics also view Netanyahu's judicial reform efforts as a weakening of liberal democratic norms. Mairav Zonszein, a senior analyst at the International Crisis Group, stated that secular and liberal factions see this election as the last chance to save Israeli democracy.

Israel's international position has also influenced the campaign. Several allies have sanctioned illegal settlements in the occupied West Bank, while many nations condemned continued military operations in Gaza and Lebanon. During a United Nations General Assembly address on September 24, dozens of envoys walked out of the session, with some booing the prime minister.

Approximately 7.3 million citizens are eligible to vote, including 1.2 million Palestinian citizens of Israel. Polls suggest turnout in the Arab community could reach 60 percent, potentially allowing Arab parties to win 15 seats. Campaigners are targeting a 70 percent turnout rate, which would mark the highest in decades. The Central Elections Committee previously barred the Joint List and Ra'am, but the Supreme Court reversed that decision last month. The court did remove Balad leader Sami Abu Shehadeh from the race following an article he wrote describing the October 7 attacks as an important historical event.

Netanyahu argues that his rivals will partner with Arab parties, a claim he uses to distinguish Likud. Joseph Mansour, a former aide to Knesset member Ayman Odeh, suggested this strategy could allow Netanyahu to serve as a caretaker prime minister if no majority emerges. Roughly three million adult Palestinians in Gaza, the West Bank, and East Jerusalem do not vote in this election but are subject to the government's decisions on borders and legal status.