Israelis Vote as Neither Bloc Holds Clear Path to Knesset Majority

Voting opened at 7:00 a.m. on Tuesday across Israel for the election of the next Knesset. This is the first national vote since the Hamas attack on October 7, 2023. The race pits Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his current coalition against an opposition bloc aiming to replace him.

Polling stations will close at 10:00 p.m., when exit polls are expected to provide preliminary projections. Official results will be finalized in the coming days after the full count is completed. Overseas voters at diplomatic missions finished casting ballots on October 16, while some military bases began voting last week.

Recent polling indicates no clear winner. The final Channel 12 poll released on Friday projected Netanyahu's bloc would win 50 seats. The opposition bloc was projected to win 56 seats. Neither group holds the 61 seats required to form a majority without the support of other parties.

Within the opposition, Gadi Eisenkot's Yashar party leads with a projected 22 seats. This figure exceeds the 19 seats projected for Netanyahu's Likud party, which currently holds 32 seats in the outgoing Knesset. Naftali Bennett's B'Yachad party is projected to receive 14 seats.

Arab parties are projected to win a combined 16 seats. Most opposition leaders have pledged against forming a government with these parties, citing the events of October 7. This stance complicates the path to a majority for the side currently leading in the polls.

Key issues driving voter decisions include the Israel Defense Forces' manpower crisis after three years of war. Voters are also weighing contentious legislation regarding the conscription of haredi men and calls for a state commission of inquiry into the government's failures before the attack.

Traditional issues, such as the establishment of a Palestinian state, have receded from the forefront. Most parties now agree against Palestinian statehood, shifting the focus to security and leadership accountability. The opposition argues Netanyahu should be held responsible for the attacks, while his camp seeks to retain power.

Voter turnout will determine the electoral threshold, set at 3.25% of valid votes. At a 70% turnout rate, similar to the 2022 election, a party needs 165,635 votes to enter the Knesset, according to calculations by the Taub Center. As turnout increases, the required vote count rises, making it harder for smaller parties to clear the bar.

Ofer Winter's People of Israel party and Yoaz Hendel's Reservists-Economics party are fighting to clear this threshold. Their success or failure will affect the balance of power between the two main blocs. A slight shift in support for these small parties could decide whether they enter the Knesset or leave their supporters unrepresented.

Police deployed approximately 20,000 officers, Border Police members, and volunteers across the country for the day. Forces are stationed at polling stations and surrounding areas to maintain public order. The police stated these measures are designed to safeguard the integrity of the elections and ensure the democratic process follows the law.